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post #21 of 105 (permalink) Old 11-08-2012, 11:15 AM
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It looks like PII is being impacted by the election results. Many investors are now EXPECTING that dividend-oriented stocks (like Polaris) are going to bear the brunt of a tax increase. I tend to agree with that mentality.

Regardless of the ultimate impact, I tend to trade on technical details. Today's recent drop due to those expectations has also driven this stock below a specific trending break point. I am tempted to re-buy into a 50% position here @ $85.24 but fear that this technical break will simply continue to drive the stock down to (potentially) as low as the $76-$78/share range but I would be re-buying (slowly) at anything below $83.00. For the long term investor, this is little more than a bump in the road as I still expect that PII will continue upwards once the "panic selling" runs it's course. However, for those looking for a re-entry point, I (for one) am going to wait a bit.

PS - This is not investment advice but rather is representative of actual trading actions I am executing on this stock in REAL TIME. As an FYI, I do this with other stocks on other forums as well.

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post #22 of 105 (permalink) Old 11-08-2012, 11:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ndabunka View Post
It looks like PII is being impacted by the election results. Many investors are now EXPECTING that dividend-oriented stocks (like Polaris) are going to bear the brunt of a tax increase. I tend to agree with that mentality.
I would bet against you. I'm not that keen on it just because I don't like the direction they're taking with their bikes. But the O man has made mention of LOWERING corporate taxes on manufacturers. And I'm guessing the Republicans aren't suicidal enough to hold up a deal that would both fatten up their defense cronies and cause middle class rates to go back up to Clinton era levels.

I'd buy it with both hands if they'd fire the current management and let the engineers run the place.

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post #23 of 105 (permalink) Old 11-08-2012, 01:20 PM
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I tried to pick up 150 shares a few minutes ago when this stock was dipped down below $84 but executed it as a Market order and ended up paying a bit over $84 for it. Saddlebags talked me into having at LEAST a small position in it at this level.

Not listening to myself I brought the position up to 300 today buying another 150 shares to bring the total position back to 300. Cost is slightly over $84/share. I wanted to be holding 300 when the ex-dividend hits @ the end of the month and not too certain about what's going to happen over the next few weeks so decided to roll the dice.

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Last edited by ndabunka; 11-09-2012 at 10:44 AM. Reason: Added to yesterday's position
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post #24 of 105 (permalink) Old 11-12-2012, 10:16 AM
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Am now..ALL IN on PII

I REALLY should have stuck to my original guns with this one but since I did not, I bought the final 200 additional shares today just slightly under $82 so I am ALL IN (that's as much as I'll risk on this one stock) with PII once more with a total of 500 shares. It PII does end up following my original projections and falls under ~$80/share, I will liquidate all 500 shares at a pre-determined loss (stop-loss). Let's see if the dividend award scheduled for the end of the month doesn't help to prop this up from here.

PS - At this point, I am up $4,750 in realized gains for the year on PII with no loosing trades (so far). Average hold period has been less than 24 days & total time invested in the market has been 80 days (so far). Peanuts for some and chump change for others. The current trade is basically "playing with house money" so let's see what PII can do before the year is out. Hopefully, there will be a LOT of snow and those sleds will start leaving the dealerships to great fanfare (e.g. record sales perhaps...LOL)

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Last edited by ndabunka; 11-12-2012 at 10:40 AM.
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post #25 of 105 (permalink) Old 11-12-2012, 10:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ndabunka View Post
I REALLY should have stuck to my original guns with this one but since I did not, I bought the final 200 additional shares today just slightly under $82 so I am ALL IN (as much as possible) with PII once more with a total of 500 shares. It PII does end up following my original projections and falls under ~$80/share, I will liquidate all 500 shares at a pre-determined loss (stop-loss). Let's see if the dividend award scheduled for the end of the month doesn't help to prop this up from here...
What's your time horizon? If the fiscal cliff isn't resolved, your stop loss will protect you. If it is, I'll bet you'll get your rally. It's business has been doing great, but man it's stock has nearly doubled within a year. It may need a little time to catch its breath now and then...

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post #26 of 105 (permalink) Old 11-12-2012, 10:57 AM
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What's your time horizon? If the fiscal cliff isn't resolved, your stop loss will protect you. If it is, I'll bet you'll get your rally. It's business has been doing great, but man it's stock has nearly doubled within a year. It may need a little time to catch its breath now and then...
Well, it was always my intention to have this position @ ex-dividend date so theoretically, I am looking to liquidate this position around my birthday, 1st week in December if not before should I be able to make a 5% profit within the next 20 days. I think that is a stock price right around $86/share.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/polari...195500359.html

I will hold a few long term positions in some stocks and I am trying to decide if PII would be one of them I might let "in that select group". As of now, I am continuing to time it based on technical movements paired with economic and public opinion. That 3rd leg is where the fiscal cliff resides. Many on the street are low on risk of "something" happening meaning that the majority of the street believes that ...SOMETHING will come out of the current discussions.

Even though the Republican leadership in Congress don't want to acknowledge it, We already know that taxes on the top 2% WILL be going up whether there is an agreement or not. It's going to happen because the ONLY alternative is letting the tax breaks expire. The only question is ...How much is this going to cost WHO with the "most extreme" being allowing the Bush tax credits to simply expire as they were NEVER intended to be a tax cut ...in perpetuity now, were they?

I am nowhere NEAR the top 2% but I am also not part of the 47% either. I (personally) would be happy to pay the $3,500/year tax increase that is projected per family if the bush tax cuts aren't extended. I say FINE, let them expire and that will avoid all the PANIC of the fiscal cliff... It's resolved (temporarily) by the additional tax income, right?

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Last edited by ndabunka; 11-12-2012 at 11:14 AM.
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post #27 of 105 (permalink) Old 11-12-2012, 11:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ndabunka View Post
Well, it was always my intention to have this position @ ex-dividend date so theoretically, I am looking to liquidate this position around my birthday, 1st week in December if not before should I be able to make a 5% profit within the next 20 days. I think that is a stock price right around $86/share.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/polari...195500359.html

I will hold a few long term positions in some stocks and I am trying to decide if PII would be one of them I might let "in that select group". As of now, I am continuing to time it based on technical movements paired with economic and public opinion. That 3rd leg is where the fiscal cliff resides. Many on the street are low on risk of "something" happening meaning that the majority of the street believes that ...SOMETHING will come out of the current discussions.

Even though the Republican leadership in Congress don't want to acknowledge it, We already know that taxes on the top 2% WILL be going up whether there is an agreement or not. It's going to happen because the ONLY alternative is letting the tax breaks expire. The only question is ...How much is this going to cost WHO with the "most extreme" being allowing the Bush tax credits to simply expire as they were NEVER intended to be a tax cut ...in perpetuity now, were they?

I am nowhere NEAR the top 2% but I am also not part of the 47% either. I (personally) would be happy to pay the $3,500/year tax increase that is projected per family if the bush tax cuts aren't extended. I say FINE, let them expire and that will avoid all the PANIC of the fiscal cliff... It's resolved (temporarily) by the additional tax income, right?
Yeah, but between higher taxes on people with lower incomes and a whole lot of govies and govie contractors going on the unemployment line due to the large spending cuts, estimates have unemployment going back to ~9.2% if you can believe the business journos. Probably a wash in total gov't revenue.

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post #28 of 105 (permalink) Old 11-12-2012, 11:52 AM
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Yeah, but between higher taxes on people with lower incomes and a whole lot of govies and govie contractors going on the unemployment line due to the large spending cuts, estimates have unemployment going back to ~9.2% if you can believe the business journos. Probably a wash in total gov't revenue.
The stage was set many, many years ago when the current "temporary tax cut" was passed to make a particular leadership look good (at that time). Even I was one of the cheerleaders at that time thinking that time would fix/resolve things. It did not and NOW it's time to "pick your poison". If the republican leadership wants to get credit for helping fix this, they are going to HAVE to capitulate on their "no taxes for the rich" HARD LINE. In other words, they need to realize that the REST of the country is FAR more important than that extremely teeny republican minority that is fighting the taxes (top 2%). The REST of the republican party (Me & the other 98% of those republicans) want SOME type of compromise. We DO NOT want what Boehner is cooking!

However, this thread is about PII so I'll conclude the political wranglings at this point.

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Last edited by ndabunka; 11-12-2012 at 11:54 AM.
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post #29 of 105 (permalink) Old 11-19-2012, 10:46 AM
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Stop-Lossed out of 300 shares

As outlined above, I did set a stop-loss on 300 shares of my position when PII dropped below $79.5/share on Friday (ARGH!). Still holding 200 shares @ a strike of around $81.77 now...

It's not just any victory.... It's MY Victory!

2011 Victory Ness Cross Country #120
Ness Thunderheaders
Ness Knurled Highway Pegs/KwelMetal Brackets
Ness Radius laydown license
Chrome CAM Tension Covers
Red Engine Bolts
Madstad System
DIY Garage Door Opener
Victory Chrome Saddle Bag Lid Rails
Küryakyn Upper Fork Shrouds
Küryakyn Lower Fork Covers
Power Commander V Tuner
Power Commander AT-300
Hertz HCX 165s Speakers
JL Audio HX280/4 Bridged 140w

Last edited by ndabunka; 11-19-2012 at 11:02 AM.
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post #30 of 105 (permalink) Old 12-04-2012, 11:35 AM
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Bought 300 shares today

Decided to re-acquire those 300 share when this hit $81.30 today. Let's see how it goes from here. I personally think that this stock should be bought anywhere under $82 due to both fundamentals as well as technicals. I think that this could well be one of those stocks that issues a 'special dividend" prior to the end of the year but I can also see this one going over $100 by mid 2013 so splits and other incentive issues are in play.

It's not just any victory.... It's MY Victory!

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Chrome CAM Tension Covers
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Küryakyn Upper Fork Shrouds
Küryakyn Lower Fork Covers
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