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we have had all kinds of punk bastards robbing and beating up people in downtown MPLS. Now it's a ghost town. Governer has shut down all bars and restaurants. You can walk down the middle of any street and not get run over. I'm not one to hide inside, I went to Kwicktrip yesterday and there was a good dozen or more people in there getting there stuff. Today was at the clinic to see a doctor and they were very scared with people. Anyone with flue sits over there anyone just seeing doctor sit over there and anyone that might have the virus come in the back door. My doctor greeted me with a big hand of soap we rubbed it in and visited then down to whats wrong with me. The news is making this way out of proportion I think. When it gets warm and I can ride I'm going for it.
Were not in trouble till the truck drivers stop working then buy everything you can. Two things I wonder about are bank loans cheaper now and where are the drugies getting their drugs from like I care.
 

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Pardon the long read but it's worth it to see what we as the human species are up against.

"Forwarded not to frighten, but to inform.
From original post by Jeremy C. Young:

“We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York TImes confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.

Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.

The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many people is 4 million Americans? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's four times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. So if we simply extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world -- now we're getting into really fuzzy estimates, so the margin of error is pretty great here -- this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19. That's 15 Holocausts. That's 1.5 times as many people as died in World War II, over 12 years. This would take 3-6 months.

Now, it's unrealistic to assume that countries wouldn't do ANYTHING to fight the virus once people started dying. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy. A mitigation strategy is pretty much what common sense would tell us to do: America places all symptomatic cases of the disease in isolation. It quarantines their families for 14 days. It orders all Americans over 70 to practice social distancing. This is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by eight times, meaning most people who need ventilators still don't get them. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two civil wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we use common sense: the worst death toll from a single cause since the Middle Ages.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers a third time, this time assuming a "suppression" strategy. In addition to isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining their family members, they also simulated social distancing for the entire population. All public gatherings and most workplaces shut down. Schools and universities close. (Note that these simulations assumed a realistic rate of adherence to these requirements, around 70-75% adherence, not that everyone follows them perfectly.) This is basically what we are seeing happen in the United States today.

This time it works! The death rate in the US peaks three weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit, but don't exceed (at least not by very much), the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear; COVID-19 goes down in the books as a bad flu instead of the Black Death.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Already, medical ethics have been pushed to the limit to deliver one. COVID-19 was first discovered a few months ago. Last week, three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for fourteen months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This is the part of the testing that can't be rushed: the plan is to inoculate the entire human population, so if the vaccine itself turned out to be lethal for some reason, it could potentially kill all humans, which is a lot worse than 90 million deaths. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and our society will be disrupted in profound ways. Worst of all, if the suppression policies actually work, it will feel like we are doing all this for nothing, because the infection and death rates will be very low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.”"

The more technical version: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0cZgCEHQBSuxuc7O-69cYHl-TDkz66_COqAaVNG3OZjkL2kGP0APYBwFM
 

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I get what this article is saying, but I think the 'estimate' is a bit low. Of those being tested, these are the results I'm seeing.

ACTIVE CASES
123,737
Currently Infected Patients
116,869 (94%)
in Mild Condition
6,868 (6%)
Serious or Critical

CLOSED CASES
93,294
Cases which had an outcome:
84,383 (90%)
Recovered / Discharged
8,911 (10%)
Deaths

Even if the reported positive infected were ONLY people over 70 that death rate is higher than the previous article suggests. I would think the actual mortality rate lies somewhere between for people < 70. The general consensus that I've read about shows that even if you are in a younger bracket pre-existing medical conditions like heart problems, breathing problems and even diabetes (type 1 and type 2) can negatively impact your survival rate. There are 20 and 30 somethings that have NO apparent pre-existing conditions that are dying from this thing albeit at vastly lower percentages.
 

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We get home from vacation tomorrow (4 days early). I’ve been told that everything you need/ want at the local grocery stores is still plentiful. We will stock up on food tomorrow and then chill at the house for a couple weeks, minus a motorcycle ride here and there.

I have 14 handles of vodka, so I should be good to go.


Don’t take life too seriously. You will never get out of it alive.
 

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Surviving doesn't mean being unharmed. Life long lung damage is caused by this with the same pattern as the first version of SARS.
Not everyone gets that but it is happening in the severe cases.

The first death here was someone who had no contact with anyone sick and not a traveler. That's why the closing of stuff to try and stop community spread.
 

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Discussion Starter #47
We have 3 cases of the coronavirus here now. The first was a student that the university had overseas. The brought him home and provided transpiration for him to a location for self quarantine. But he did not follow directions. He left the airport and went to a restaurant. Then went home to his parents house, exposing the virus to a bunch of people. The second case was a guy that had been in a state that has had a lot of cases of the virus. He went to the hospital sick and went to 3 different clinics in the hospital. Again exposing a lot of people and he was from the county West of us. The 3rd person they have gave no details about.

I was going to go get my motorcycle registered today and buy beer. I guess I still will, because there will be more cases of virus pop up now. Then I will just stay at home for a couple of weeks and see how it plays out around here. Guys this really sucks for the whole world.
 

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My wife has a hair salon. She is open today, then closing until further notice.

We had planned to go camping this weekend at a State Park, but I canceled that.

We have no confirmed cases in this county, but 1 in each bordering county and 1 death in the state,
I work in an office of 2 people. We are approx. 20' apart and no one else is coming/going thru here, so as long as the base is open, I'll go to work, but I have 3 weeks of leave I can use if the Navy decides to close the base.

We have 3 weeks worth of groceries and supplies, so we're good. I feel for the people who don't get paid if they don't work. This will be a big hit financially. For us, we can live on what I make if we have to, but if it stretches out and I have no money coming in we'll be depleting our savings.
 

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My wife has a hair salon. She is open today, then closing until further notice.

We had planned to go camping this weekend at a State Park, but I canceled that.

We have no confirmed cases in this county, but 1 in each bordering county and 1 death in the state,
I work in an office of 2 people. We are approx. 20' apart and no one else is coming/going thru here, so as long as the base is open, I'll go to work, but I have 3 weeks of leave I can use if the Navy decides to close the base.

We have 3 weeks worth of groceries and supplies, so we're good. I feel for the people who don't get paid if they don't work. This will be a big hit financially. For us, we can live on what I make if we have to, but if it stretches out and I have no money coming in we'll be depleting our savings.
This might help a lot of people get through this financially. The gov did this before during the last big recession.

 

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My wife is transitioning from one hospital to another currently, but there's no way she won't have work. She'll be lucky if they don't find some way to lock her into the current job somehow; it is a government job after all. I know that 1,000 dollars plus 500/kid is going to help a lot of people in the short term. I just wonder how this all plays out in the months coming. I've heard of at least 3 different anti-virus's that have been independently developed and they've already thrown away the FDA guidelines for human trials to get it vetted as soon as possible, but it's going to be at least a year before it's approved and ready for distribution. This ain't a sprint ya'll.. it's gonna be a marathon.
 

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My wife is transitioning from one hospital to another currently, but there's no way she won't have work. She'll be lucky if they don't find some way to lock her into the current job somehow; it is a government job after all. I know that 1,000 dollars plus 500/kid is going to help a lot of people in the short term. I just wonder how this all plays out in the months coming. I've heard of at least 3 different anti-virus's that have been independently developed and they've already thrown away the FDA guidelines for human trials to get it vetted as soon as possible, but it's going to be at least a year before it's approved and ready for distribution. This ain't a sprint ya'll.. it's gonna be a marathon.
Cases have doubled every day since Monday. Think about that... 1000, 2,000, 4,000, 8,000, 16,000, 32,000, 64,000, 128,000, 256,000, 512,000, 1,024,000... in TEN DAYS! The worst part is we don't even know how many cases there are because there are not enough tests to find out. Hospitals are running out of masks, face shields... they are being told to tie a bandanna around their face... to clean and re-use PPE... seriously?

Italy waited too long... by the time they shut down for 30 days it was too late to save thousands of people. What we need to do is SHUT DOWN and everybody STAY HOME for 30 days and we need to start NOW. A 30-day shut down will be well worth it in the end. Ask the Italians. Ask the Chinese. Time to ACT.
 

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SOCIALISM!!! LOL
Free Stuff for doing nothing! WooHoo! Beaches are shut down....vacation over. Just got home. Grocery store was nearly fully stocked. Got everything we wanted but ground beef.

Got 13 handles of vodka in my garage, so I’m going to start working on those


Don’t take life too seriously. You will never get out of it alive.
 

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Discussion Starter #55
I've got everything done I need to. Got my scooter inspected and registered, New eye glasses, food, beer. I do need to gas up my truck. I think I can get by a month with out leaving the house if need be. We have four cases confirmed here now. Other cases are being reported in the Texas Panhandle. Worked on the Cantina some yesterday and there is some mowing I need to get done. Trying to stay busy is going to be the tough part.
 

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Discussion Starter #56
They have a drive through coronavirus testing place set up at the University Medical Center here. So they are getting things going. Maybe we can keep the spread of the virus down.
 

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Discussion Starter #57
Texas has shut down restaurants, bars, gyms and massage parlors. They are allowing booze to be delivered to your home but liquor stores have not been closed down. Many parts companies are asking for people need parts to email or call in and they can pick up what they need at the loading dock. Churches have not been closed down but have been advised to keep social distance. 6 cases of the virus in this area now.

Good news, no ran in the forecast with days in the upper 70's and reasonable winds. So I can get some work done around here and ride some. We still have a group meeting at a motorcycle shop for a few beers around 4, but it is dwindling down. I'm not going to day and am considering keeping my gate shut.
 

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I can't stay home a month. Still can't get groceries around here everyone buying them up before I get there.

Illinois and California forced to stay home. Several exceptions to that. Ohio will probably be next and we are right in the middle.

Work give us some BS paperwork from one of the fed agencies. Outlining what they recommend for essential workers during an emergency. Highlighted a line on it and told us it's proof we are essential. Bull. Emergency restrictions come from the state/local level and they enforce them. Fed authority can restrict travel between states and other countries. Not locally. Barney Fife gonna laugh at that piece of paper while writing out a ticket.

So far two deaths here and many businesses are staying home. Lot of auto industry jobs in Indiana directly or indirectly and when the big boys shut down so do the suppliers.

What is shutting down here is only next Monday until April 1. Not sure what will be accomplished in 8-9 day shutdown but that might be extended. Schools are done until May 1 with possible extension.

Good luck getting kids to social distance. They still go out see friends etc. Many don't have any symptoms so they can bring it home if they catch it.

This bug isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
 

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Discussion Starter #59
Zinc helps fight off viruses and red meet and pinto beans have a lot of zinc in them. So I had a rib eye steak for supper last night. Then we put a pot of pinto beans and ham in the slow cooker last night. Eating a bowl right now and they are damn good. Lots of heavy thick juice. I'm sure the beans will help keep the coronavirus away. Because if anyone gets to close I'll cut a big fart and they will get away from me fast, could boil some eggs too.
 

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watched this last night,
got a spare 45 mins, it makes sense to me
 
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