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An interesting read for anyone who trades stocks. A buddy of mine has had a long-term SELL on HOG for a while now. I have not traded it previously but am starting to consider it and am reading articles like this one to get an idea of what is what out there. Until this article I had no idea that HD had agreed to these HUGE (in financial terms) 15% loans payments to Buffet...
http://beta.fool.com/elihpaudio/2013/05/07/hog-part-ii-pig-rising/33648/?source=eogyholnk0000001
Buffet loaned money to many corporations during the debt crisis. I wouldn't short it for that reason. Businesses have a way of writing off such things ya know. Look at Apple. They just took out a bazillion dollar loan to pay dividends because it is way cheaper for them than repatriating their profits to the US. True patriots those guys...

I'd be more more apt to short Harley because boomers are getting old and dying off and leaving a pile of late market Harleys on the market. Also, younger people have shitty jobs that don't pay enough to afford such luxuries, raise kiddies, take care of parents (e.g. pay SSI they'll never collect on), and save for their own retirements.

The guy that wrote that article needs to do some research. Buy a Honda MC under $1k? Yeah right. And according to him, Harley's cheapest bike is $15k (actually more like $8k).

If he's that clueless over the very basics of the business, I'd be wary of taking too much advise from him.
 

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SB, if the boomer die-off affects HD, where does that leave Victory. Both companies appeal mainly to old and better off customers. I think the impact will affect both companies about the same. Indian relies even more on people being well off. Are they doomed from the start?
 

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SB, if the boomer die-off affects HD, where does that leave Victory.
Probably in the same place if Vic continues to count on selling lots of high margin baggers. But Polaris is a lot more diversified. They are making street legal electric vehicles in addition to watercraft and snowmobiles. Their engineers have also demonstrated that they are talented enough to make whatever the market dictates.

I see Harley as a marketing cash cow. They've got a large group of people who will over pay to ride their machines for emotional reasons. If that supply of riders ever dries up, bolt the doors and turn off the lights. Harley engineers seem barely capable of providing band-aids sufficient to keep their antiquated bar hoppers operable through their warranty.

But then again, who knows. The world is a funny place. If you'd have asked me 10 years ago if 98% of the population would be glued to their phones today to the point of wrecking their cars and falling in fountains, I'm sure I'd have never believed it. Hell, I even like the Road King.
 

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But then again, who knows. The world is a funny place. If you'd have asked me 10 years ago if 98% of the population would be glued to their phones today to the point of wrecking their cars and falling in fountains, I'm sure I'd have never believed it. Hell, I even like the Road King.
That's great!!
 
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