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Interesting to note that On Hwy included cruisers and other bikes. Meaning sport etc. Clicking to HD sales numbers out of 64,706 motorcycles they sold 34,708 bikes. The MIC numbers are US only so I did not count the other world sales figure. Polaris didn't give sales numbers.
 

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The sales drop explains why Harley is dropping a bunch of models from the 2014 lineup. Rumors also persist that Harley will come out with a water cooled Big Twin in 2015.
 

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Rumors about 2015 are rumors but a known fact is the HD Road Glide series, their real challenge for a touring bike, is being dropped for 2014. That part is not rumor but has been verified. That means that not only Victory but other manufacturers have a wide open window to pick up tour bike sales share while HD is absent. If they fail to do so, do not pity them, they missed a huge opportunity that will not be soon repeated.
 

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Rumors about 2015 are rumors but a known fact is the HD Road Glide series, their real challenge for a touring bike, is being dropped for 2014. That part is not rumor but has been verified. That means that not only Victory but other manufacturers have a wide open window to pick up tour bike sales share while HD is absent. If they fail to do so, do not pity them, they missed a huge opportunity that will not be soon repeated.
The Road Glide's a bit like the Vision: you love it or you hate it (for the record, I think they're both pretty sharp). But it's Harley's only entry in the fixed-fairing touring bike deparment. But looks like now your choices for a fixed-fairing V-twin tourer are limited to the Vision and one of the Vulcan iterations (Nomad/Voyager/Vaquero). Am I missing anybody there?

However, I think ol' Ma Kaw might make the best of this. Not only do they have 3 bikes to pick in that department, but the Vulcans appeal to more (don't want to say pedestrian) contemporary (?) sensibilities. I love the Vision, but she is an acquired taste and superior performance and technology do not always a sale make.
 

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Personally, I see this as an opportunity for Vic to pick up market share if they can capitalize on that HD absence from the category. HD has a somewhat captive audience in large tour bikes but when they have nothing to offer, other vendors need to step in with their own offerings and make it clear that they have no HD competition. I say HD have an inside track but I am a HD tour bike owner and if they no longer offered the bike I would be actively looking elsewhere.
Just my opinion here.
 

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Personally, I see this as an opportunity for Vic to pick up market share if they can capitalize on that HD absence from the category. HD has a somewhat captive audience in large tour bikes but when they have nothing to offer, other vendors need to step in with their own offerings and make it clear that they have no HD competition. I say HD have an inside track but I am a HD tour bike owner and if they no longer offered the bike I would be actively looking elsewhere.
Just my opinion here.
The Street Glide is HDs best selling tourer and it will continue to outsell all the Victory touring bikes combined. The Road Glide will be back and redesigned in 2015. Victory may get a few thousand sales from the drop of the Road Glide in 2014, but I doubt it will be a significant drop in sales for HD. There are a lot of diehard Harley lovers that won't switch brands even if the other brands make a better bike and offer more bang for the buck. For me, Victory was the only alternative since American iron still means something to me. I'll be looking hard at Indian for my next bike.
 

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First quarter sales in bikes do not reflect the true industry. 65% of North America is still under snow the first quarter. I am sure you would see the same numbers if we were looking at the sale of tents or campers. Lets wait and see the 2nd quarter results that will be generated during the spring and first part of summer.

Jim
 

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Discussion Starter #9

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I was talking in general terms with reference to the article posted and was not referencing any certain brand.
 

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Interesting to note that On Hwy included cruisers and other bikes. Meaning sport etc. Clicking to HD sales numbers out of 64,706 motorcycles they sold 34,708 bikes. The MIC numbers are US only so I did not count the other world sales figure. Polaris didn't give sales numbers.
So, 65k total American sales
35 were hawgs, 55%.
BMW reports 3250 American sales, give or take in Q1. That's 5%.
So with 60% accounted for what percent is Vic? Less than Bimwa I betcha.
Just a gut shot based on brand recognition and the amount of rides on any given Sunday I guess 2% tops. That would put Victory numbers for Q1 around 12 or 13 hundred.
Hard to pin down dealer network but 300 seems to be in the ballpark.

The math then is during the first three months of '13 Victory sold less than 2 bikes per shingle per month. I would bet also that probably 60 or 70 of those shingles sold 4 or more per month leaving a whole bunch of dealers scratching to pay the light bill.
Say Vic matched Bimwa. That's still less than 4 bikes a month per dealer, one a week. Again, a dealer in Boca is making numbers and a dealer in Bismark ain't, not in Jan, Feb, March.

Just playing with the numbers. Bunch of ways to move Pops numbers. Lot of guesstimating. Talk about best case. It's June. I'm off by a factor of 10 say. Now we're talking 20 units a month, one sale a day. I never knew anybody selling anything legal in those numbers but hey, it could happen. Better bank that money because June is a short trip to January and back to 2 a month.
 
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