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Discussion Starter #1
Bought some Polaris stock the other day, first time stock buyer. I have had mutual funds here in Canada for years and am throwing money out the window. Thought I could guess better than my financial advisor.

Any thoughts or advice on Polaris stock or the American economy?????

Thanks Mark
 

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You might want to read this book by a trio that wrote a book that predicted in '06 exactly what happened in '08. In this book, they are predicting our financial near future and it is not a pretty picture.
[ame]http://www.amazon.com/Aftershock-Protect-Yourself-Financial-Meltdown/dp/0470918144[/ame]
I have been tracking Polaris stock (PII) and it seems that its at a high right now, not a good time to buy. It does waver, however and when it does, buy more at the lower point to average your buy-in downward. Other than that, all I can suggest is buy low and sell high. Don't feel too bad, I thought I knew better than my adviser too--just once. Won't do that again.
 

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Bought some Polaris stock the other day, first time stock buyer. I have had mutual funds here in Canada for years and am throwing money out the window. Thought I could guess better than my financial advisor.

Any thoughts or advice on Polaris stock or the American economy?????

Thanks Mark
Most MC makers are sitting on their hands. Polaris is making a huge bet on big, upscale bikes at a time when fuel prices are high, baby boomers are trading in Harleys for Humarounds and youth un/underemployment is at all time highs. Honda is taking the other bet, turning out light, inexpensive models that get huge mpg.

I hope Polaris is making the right bet and we do well with our energy exploits and maybe even bring back some wealth creating industries, but you may want to investigate HMC too.

Take a look around at your local shops from time to time. Around here, big twins of all brands are busy holding down the tiles on the showroom floors...
 

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You might want to read this book by a trio that wrote a book that predicted in '06 exactly what happened in '08.
Really, can you link it for us?

If you believe the "shockers" you better be stocking up on gold now as it falls. This has to be the most ridiculous concept ever. What are we going to do if our money were to lose value to foreign currencies, start producing things here again or sit around a campfire trading gold nuggets with one another?
 

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Saddle, the link is in my previous post. I'm not saying that I believe all that's in their second book, but I can see inflation creeping up higher than our government is admitting to just by the reports I hear from my wife (the Cunning Coupon Commando) when she returns from the supermarkets. She has a fantastic memory for prices and shows me many items that have increased in price since her last purchase and decreased in quantity.
 

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Discussion Starter #6 (Edited)
I bought at what I thought was a reasonable price and ahead of the game as of today, tomorrow who knows.
I believe Polaris also pays a dividend another reason I bought this stock.
I will let everybody know if I have enough money made off the stock to buy a new 2014.

In the meantime you folks could help out and buy as many Polaris tee shirts etc as possible.
 

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Could be that Polaris is counting on H-D types jumping ship for their Indian as it would appeal to traditionalists, the kind that lean toward Harleys. Hence all the vintage Indian design cues. My guess is if Indian sales take off and remain strong, so will Polaris stock.
 

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Saddle, the link is in my previous post. I'm not saying that I believe all that's in their second book, but I can see inflation creeping up higher than our government is admitting to just by the reports I hear from my wife (the Cunning Coupon Commando) when she returns from the supermarkets. She has a fantastic memory for prices and shows me many items that have increased in price since her last purchase and decreased in quantity.
She is seeing inflation in food because we had a serious drought in the US last year. Has nothing to do with QE as the conspiracists might have you believe. The only thing inflating is stock valuations as the spread the corporations can make off of ever deflating commodities and cheap labor is pretty surreal.

Anyway, I want a link to their last book where they purportedly made these astounding predictions. Seems like I've been hearing them place "the world is going to end within 6 months" ads for about the last 4 years on XM.
 

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Saddle, their first book was "America's Bubble Economy." To repeat, I do not subscribe to everything these books contain. Its a read it and make up your own mind situation. Fair nuff?
I don't think the drought had anything to do with the coconut oil pretty wife just bought at about 25% higher than her last purchase of it. Do you? That's just one example of many and all I'm going to take my time providing you.
 

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You might see Polaris trend upwards slightly until the new Indian is officially presented. However, I expect it to dip as it's not a huge mover (though at the suggested price point, it's much cheaper than previous offerings).

Generally the first couple years after a new acquisition can be a little shaky as demand and market impressions settle in.

With the new healthcare bill, many employers will be scaling back on staff, mostly low wage jobs. However, many companies will be experiencing stiff penalties due to the cost of their health insurance and staff to handle new regulations. Though I won't name, names, a company I know of will be incurring costs that amount to 1 dollar per hour per employee per week. Many companies with more than 100 employees may experience similar costs. Not earth shattering, but it will certainly slow much needed raises to cope with fairly significant inflation. Not only have prices risen, quantities have also decreased for given products. Nothing new, they've done it before.

Anyhow, I think the economy is still a few years away from any notable improvement. Further, as more boomers move to fixed incomes and the youth replacing them are generally underpaid, large spending sprees are likely not right around the corner. The transition of boomers to retirement is going to be a difficult hurdle for this country as they've been the major market force for the past 25 years.

All that aside, I don't think Polaris is going to be tanking anytime soon. They're pretty money conscious (maybe more so than many powersports companies). If the new Indian fails to really impress, I expect them to drop a little, but again trend upwards as Indian proves its profitability. I still keep expecting for Polaris to bring out smaller dual sport bikes and the like. Though, wasn't there something about them teaming up with KTM? Maybe it was someone else... I don't remember.
 

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Though I won't name, names, a company I know of will be incurring costs that amount to 1 dollar per hour per employee per week. Many companies with more than 100 employees may experience similar costs.
That's probably about right. Papa John predicted that he would have to increase the cost of a pie by a nickle to cover the costs. I suppose if the avg worker pumps out 20 pies an hour, that's about right.

But the benefits to society of not impoverishing a good deal of our work force due to inability to pay obscene medical bills will probably afford him far more customers when all is said and done.
 

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All that aside, I don't think Polaris is going to be tanking anytime soon. They're pretty money conscious (maybe more so than many powersports companies). If the new Indian fails to really impress, I expect them to drop a little, but again trend upwards as Indian proves its profitability.
Surely won't kill them, but I wouldn't want to own the stock when they have to announce that little tidbit in a conference call...

I still keep expecting for Polaris to bring out smaller dual sport bikes and the like. Though, wasn't there something about them teaming up with KTM? Maybe it was someone else... I don't remember.
I recall that too, but IIRC they sold their share in the company. Too bad as KTM is making some great products now.
 

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That's probably about right. Papa John predicted that he would have to increase the cost of a pie by a nickle to cover the costs. I suppose if the avg worker pumps out 20 pies an hour, that's about right.

But the benefits to society of not impoverishing a good deal of our work force due to inability to pay obscene medical bills will probably afford him far more customers when all is said and done.
After spending a good amount of time on the material, I'm not expecting obscene medical bills to be going anywhere... particularly looking at the base 60/40 coverage the government's calling "basic".... need to start stepping on some of these pharma companies and med tech manufacturers... but that'd be way off topic and a knotted ball of string and likely to not ever happen to the complexity of the issue. XD

It's going to be a long slog for a while I think. While many people are looking to the tech sector, not everyone can sit in an office. When manufacturing grows in the US and companies in cities once again have wage competitions for laborers... then you'll see luxury items start moving again.

I'm positive Polaris is thinking about this and is already working towards a solution in the way of lower cost motorcycles and scooters. Of course that's honda's forte really. Again, I think a niche offering may be the way to go... something different in the sub 1000cc sector.
 

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I'm positive Polaris is thinking about this and is already working towards a solution in the way of lower cost motorcycles and scooters. Of course that's honda's forte really.
Just in case the Indian doesn't pan out, Polaris is covering their bases:

 

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Not sure if a 3k electric bicycle that costs just a little less than a 250 highway capable motorcycle is what I'd be looking to, to meet tough economic times :)
 

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I held PII for a few months, went from 74 to 93, I sold it at 90. Lately it has been moving from 83 to 90, consistently. Could be a something to trade every few days or weeks, if you have the belly for that!
 

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Breaking news for people who want to play Polaris stock. This evening's Mad Money show included a comparison of Polaris to another popular off road company and came away with a recommendation to buy Polaris, especially on any pull back. Since Cramer often affects stock prices with his commentary, it might be a chance to get a short term pop on the stock price if you already own some, although the underlying fundamentals will be back in control of the stock price by next week.
Don't be surprised if it takes a week for the stock price to be attractive and for goodness sake don't buy it when you see it moving up tomorrow after this comment. If you really want to get in, be patient and wait for a decent price. It could take 2 or more weeks for the short term effect to wear off.
 

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You guys need to forget about Victory & Indian as they are a very small part of the Polaris business model. Polaris has been buying up a lot of smaller companies worldwide in the last few years with various types of electric vehicle mfg'ers being high on the list. They also have and continue to pursue military contracts from govt's around the world for their off-road products. 2 ytears ago the stock was around 90. Since it has split 2 for 1 and gone back to it's close yesterday of 132+.
For a long-haul investment it could just be one of the better choices you could make - just MHO
 

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Discussion Starter #20
I sold my position at 126.51 dollars last month (Sept/13) and took a 45% profit, now waiting to get back in. Anybody have a crystal ball????
 
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